SPRY Stock Forecast & Price Target

ARS Pharmaceuticals is supported by a differentiated, first-in-class intranasal epinephrine platform that addresses major shortcomings of injectable autoinjectors, while neffy’s U.S. market share has already risen to 5% from 4% in 3Q25 and to ~9% in salesforce-covered accounts from ~6% a year ago, signaling improving launch execution. Management’s more disciplined commercial strategy, broader payer work, and state-level progress such as Florida Medicaid’s unrestricted coverage on July 1, 2026 should help convert prescription growth into stronger sales, even after the July 1, 2026 formulary update came in lighter than hoped. Beyond neffy, ARS-2 offers a large, underserved CSU opportunity with strong KOL enthusiasm, interim Phase 2b data expected in 4Q26, and the potential for premium pricing above $1,500 per dose, while 2026 OpEx was lowered to about $248M and cash-flow breakeven was reaffirmed for 2027.

ARS Pharmaceuticals is facing a weaker fundamental setup because neffy’s $33.4M 3Q sales fell short of the $38M estimate and $39M consensus, suggesting the launch is not translating into the rapid uptake initially expected. Adoption has been slower in a broad, fragmented market with an entrenched low-cost standard of care, while physician confidence in the reliability of a novel intranasal emergency product remains a key adoption hurdle and competitive risks from alternative epinephrine delivery approaches persist. The absence of new July 1 commercial formulary additions removed a near-term catalyst, and lower US penetration assumptions plus payer and reimbursement friction point to a more delayed revenue ramp and ongoing execution risk.