SRAD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Sportradar Gr is benefiting from a stronger mix of high-margin subscription and revenue-sharing products, with 3Q26 revenue of €363M and EBITDA of €102M both beating expectations as betting tech revenue rose 27% and U.S. revenue climbed 47%. The company’s outlook is supported by prediction markets ramping across Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Robinhood and the NBA ecosystem, while rights costs rising 54% appear accretive because they reflect new revenue streams rather than pure inflation. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of €1.525B revenue and €364M EBITDA, expects margin expansion and improving free cash flow, and is returning capital through repurchases with liquidity of €440M and no debt.

Sportradar Gr is challenged by a business model that depends on renewing sports-data partnerships and absorbing rapidly rising rights costs, which can squeeze margins if leagues demand higher fees that cannot be passed through to customers. Regulatory exposure also weighs on the outlook, since growth in the total addressable market depends on additional online sports betting legalization, while Brazil remains a meaningful headwind with about €60M of annual revenue exposure and above-average EBITDA margins at risk. Financially, the bearish case points to lower 2027E revenue and adjusted EBITDA by 6.2% and 7.4%, respectively, as foreign exchange swings, concentrated insider ownership, and limited incremental relief from other revenue sources constrain growth and free cash flow.