STAAR Surgical (STAA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Staar Surgical is supported by a durable recovery in China, where 2Q’26 net sales of $93.5M grew 111.0% year over year as EVO+ adoption accelerated to roughly a third of China ICL units and management saw no evidence of distributor inventory build. Profitability also improved sharply, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $20.0M and a 21.4% margin, while gross margin expanded to 74.5% and cash and investments rose to $181.5M, underscoring strong operating leverage, disciplined expense control, and a debt-free balance sheet. The permanent CEO appointment further reduces a key overhang, and with ex-China sales still growing and management targeting well over $200M in cash by year-end, the company appears positioned for continued margin expansion and long-term value creation.

Staar Surgical is facing a deteriorating competitive position in China as EyeBright’s domestically manufactured phakic lens launched in spring 2025 at roughly one-third the cost of STAA’s ICL, while early clinical impressions appear comparable and could lead to 10%-15% near-term market capture, with a possible 40% share in coming years if follow-up data remains favorable. Although cautious surgeons are waiting 6-12 months for longer-term biocompatibility data, that pause only provides a shrinking grace period, and the company’s almost complete reliance on ICL sales leaves it highly exposed to any sustained loss of share. More broadly, LASIK appears set to remain the dominant refractive procedure because it is cheaper, faster, and already supported by installed laser economics, leaving ICL largely confined to a narrower niche of patients who cannot undergo LASIK or PRK.