Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is viewed favorably because XDEMVY is scaling rapidly, delivering $194.6MM in 3Q26 sales, up 64% year over year, with more than $1B in cumulative net sales and over one million bottles dispensed since launch. The company also raised FY26 XDEMVY guidance to $715-730MM as daily prescribers rose about 20%, retreatment reached roughly 20% of prescriptions, and DTC returns improved, suggesting durable commercial momentum even in a seasonally softer quarter. Beyond the core product, the pipeline adds upside through TP-04 and TP-05 Phase II topline data expected in 1H27 and the newly acquired IRX-101 program, while $309.6MM in cash and marketable securities supports ongoing execution.

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is exposed to meaningful product and regulatory risk because its outlook depends heavily on Xdemvy, where any emerging safety issue could quickly undermine physician confidence, slow adoption, and weaken the company’s core commercial engine. As penetration nears peak, launch growth may decelerate, while pricing pressure from IRA negotiation or most-favored-nation policy could compress realized revenue and limit margin expansion. In addition, competition in Demodex blepharitis and Stargardt disease, limited exclusivity for gildeuretinol, and possible delays in NORTHSTAR and COMFORT raise execution risk and make the pipeline less certain as a long-term offset.