Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. has shown strong growth indicators, updating their 2025 revenue estimates positively due to increased operational expenditures and an expanded sales force, now totaling 150, aimed at boosting prescription rates among lower volume physicians. The company's product, XDEMVY, is gaining traction with commercial and Medicare coverage extending to over 90% of potential patient lives, supported by a direct-to-consumer campaign that is poised to enhance market penetration. Furthermore, the company anticipates a 10% sequential volume growth in 1Q25 with a solid forecast driven by demand from both direct consumer outreach and ongoing clinical studies, positioning Tarsus favorably for significant revenue upside in the coming years.

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. recently experienced a significant stock decline of 9.3%, despite exceeding sales expectations for its therapeutic candidate XDEMVY, amidst concerns regarding its high guidance for gross to net (GTN) adjustments and an overestimation of volume capture rates by IQVIA. The company's reported 4Q24 net loss of $23.4 million, translating to a loss of $0.60 per share, raises red flags about its overall financial health and ability to sustain operations as it navigates high direct-to-consumer spending and conservative management guidance. Furthermore, the anticipated seasonal impact on GTN leading to a projected discount between 46-49%, coupled with ongoing discrepancies in bottle dispensing forecasts, indicates underlying challenges that may hinder future growth prospects.