TCBI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. has demonstrated a strong financial performance, highlighted by a 31 basis point increase in the tangible common equity (TCE) ratio to 10.56%, positioning it in the top quartile of its peers. The bank has experienced substantial growth in average mortgage warehouse loans, which rose by 7.6% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding forecasts, and a notable 23% increase in core noninterest income, primarily driven by investment banking activities. Additionally, Texas Capital's ability to enhance its treasury management capabilities has led to improved client acquisition and retention, contributing to the bank's ongoing profitability and disciplined expense management.

Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. has experienced a decline in both net interest income and core fee income, with net interest income decreasing by 1.6% sequentially to $267.4 million and core fee income dropping 23% quarter-over-quarter to $60 million. Additionally, the company's period-end loans held for investment decreased by $158 million to $17.98 billion, driven largely by a $301 million decline in commercial real estate (CRE) balances, with expectations of continued payoffs in that sector through 2026. Furthermore, period-end deposits fell by 3.8% or $1.1 billion quarter-over-quarter, reflecting broader challenges in investment banking and other fee-related revenue streams.