TFI International (TFII) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TFI International is well positioned for long-term upside because its Truckload and Logistics businesses are showing strong operational momentum, with TL revenue up 10%, adjusted operating ratio improving 560bps to 86.7%, and Logistics revenue rising 19% to $437MM with EBITDA margin expanding to 16.0%. Despite a tough Q3 and 4Q guidance below consensus, management is shifting toward better-performing, more asset-light segments, supported by cost controls, fleet right-sizing, and acquisitions that should lift margins and returns over time. Strong free cash flow, a solid balance sheet, and expected 2027 free cash flow of $700-$800MM should also support debt paydown and buybacks, making the current valuation discount to peers look too wide.

TFI International is under a negative outlook because its U.S. LTL business is showing structural weakness, with 3Q adjusted EPS of $1.67 missing estimates and LTL operating ratio deteriorating to 91.3% amid lower revenue per shipment, elevated subcontractor and personnel costs, and lingering linehaul expenses. While Truckload and Logistics improved, those gains were not enough to offset the drag from TForce Freight and the loss of the GFP contract after January 31, 2027, which removes $30 million of revenue and $4.2 million of operating income from 3Q26. Management’s pivot toward a specialized, asset-light model may help over time, but weak U.S. network density, pricing trade-offs, and execution issues suggest a long, uncertain turnaround with limited near-term catalysts.