Target (TGT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Target's strong market position as one of the largest discount retailers in the U.S. is reflected in its impressive fiscal 2024 sales of over $106 billion, supported by a diverse product mix with food and beverage generating 23% of revenue. The company benefits from a robust operational model, with more than 97% of sales fulfilled through its nearly 2,000 physical stores, and approximately 30% of sales derived from private-label brands, enhancing profitability. Additionally, Target's plan to increase capital spending to $5 billion in FY'26 aligns with investments in store renovations and technological advancements, positioning the company for sustained growth and competitive advantage among larger players in the retail sector.

Target's stock outlook is negatively impacted by a noticeable decline in store comparable sales, which fell 3.8% and experienced further deceleration over a two- and three-year stack basis. Additionally, traffic trends remain sluggish, with a year-over-year decrease of 2.2% in Q3, accompanied by a disappointing adjusted EPS guidance reduction for 2025 from $7-$9 to $7-$8. Furthermore, Target's e-commerce growth is muted at only 2.4%, significantly lagging behind competitors, and private-label penetration has also continued its downward trend, indicating ongoing challenges in attracting and retaining customers.