Target (TGT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Target has demonstrated robust growth in digital sales, particularly through same-day services, which increased over 25% in the latest quarter, highlighting the strength of its loyalty program, Target Circle 360. The company reported an overall increase in comparable sales of 1.5%, driven by a 2.1% rise in traffic, despite a slight decline in average ticket size, indicating effective customer engagement strategies. With expectations of modest EBIT margin expansion in 2025, Target is well-positioned to continue leveraging its extensive retail footprint and appealing product offerings to attract a more affluent consumer base.

Target has reported a decline in Card penetration, with a 10 basis point drop sequentially, following a previous 30 basis point decline, indicating potential weaknesses in customer loyalty and spending behavior. The company’s retail gross margin of 26.2% is down 40 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to elevated digital fulfillment and supply chain costs, along with higher promotional markdowns, which may adversely affect profitability. Additionally, Target anticipates a slight year-over-year sales decline and significant EBIT pressure in the first quarter, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer confidence and discretionary spending trends.