Tenet Healthcare (THC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tenet Healthcare reported robust financial performance for the third quarter, with consolidated net operating revenue reaching $5.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA increasing 12% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, reflecting strong organic growth and high patient acuity. The company's hospital segment demonstrated improved metrics, including a 1.4% increase in adjusted admissions and a 5.9% rise in revenue per adjusted admission, alongside a margin improvement of 160 basis points to 15.1%. Management's upward revision of revenue guidance to between $21.15 billion and $21.35 billion underscores the company's positive trajectory, driven by effective operational strategies and growth potential across its outpatient and specialty services.

Tenet Healthcare's financial outlook is negatively impacted by its underperformance relative to peers, as evidenced by a modest EBITDA increase of $50 million in Q3 2025, which falls short of both HCA's and UHS's more robust increases. The company's reliance on government-sponsored programs exposes it to significant reimbursement risks, further compounded by a highly leveraged balance sheet and concentrated geographic operations. Additionally, challenges such as labor shortages and shifts in payer mix may lead to increased volatility in operating trends, contributing to a bearish sentiment regarding the stock's future performance.