THRY Stock Forecast & Price Target

Thryv Holdings Inc. has demonstrated strong financial performance with a quarterly increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) to $335, reflecting a 3.4% growth, while achieving a record high client retention rate of 103%, an increase of 900 basis points year-over-year, excluding the impact of the Keap acquisition. The company's SaaS client base surged to 111,000, marking a significant 59% year-over-year growth, with a 37% increase to 96,000 clients when excluding Keap. Additionally, the acquisition of Keap is expected to bolster Thryv's international growth, enhancing management's capacity to exploit new market opportunities.

Thryv Holdings, Inc. faces a negative outlook primarily due to expectations of a deteriorating macroeconomic environment for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and weaker net and gross retention rates. The company's projected adjusted EBITDA growth may fall 500 basis points below the base case for 2025 and 2026, posing significant risks to financial performance. Additionally, potential execution challenges from management and customer reluctance to adopt the necessary changes could further impair growth metrics, compounding the company's financial vulnerabilities.