TreeHouse Foods (THS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TreeHouse Foods, the largest pure-play private-label manufacturer in the U.S., has raised its fiscal year 2025 sales estimate, anticipating a reported growth of 0.5%. The company is projected to achieve an EBITDA of $359 million, reflecting a 6% increase and a 60 basis points expansion in EBITDA margin to 10.6%, driven by gross margin improvements and cost savings. By focusing on high-growth categories and optimizing its financial performance, TreeHouse Foods is positioning itself for a positive trajectory in the competitive landscape of the private-label market.

TreeHouse Foods has experienced a decline in private label units of 1.6% in the second quarter, highlighting a trend of ceding market share to national brands. Projections for third quarter sales growth are disappointing, with estimates indicating less than 0.5% growth, driven by a nearly 7.5% volume decrease and a marginal increase in pricing. Factors contributing to this negative outlook include a significant volume/mix decline, attributed to a recent frozen griddle product recall, ongoing margin management actions, and unfavorable consumer trends.