TMCI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Treace Medical Concepts Inc. has shown a 7.0% year-over-year increase in active surgeon users, reaching approximately 3,285, despite a 9% decline in utilization per surgeon, indicating potential for revenue growth through enhanced surgeon engagement. The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the high-value (HV) market with initiatives in direct-to-consumer programs and expedited sales representative hiring, which could lead to improved profit margins through increased average selling prices (ASPs) and greater market penetration in complementary foot and ankle procedures. With a bolstered sales force and the potential for higher ancillary product sales, Treace Medical Concepts is well-positioned to achieve low double-digit revenue growth by fiscal year 2026.

Treace Medical Concepts Inc. is projected to experience a decline in revenue during the historically strong fourth quarter, with estimates at approximately $61.8 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of nearly 10%. The lowered revenue guidance for FY25, adjusted to $211-$213 million from a previous outlook of $224-$230 million, suggests persistent challenges in the market, particularly due to decreased elective procedures and headwinds affecting their Lapiplasty product line. Furthermore, with projected negative year-over-year growth in 2026 prior to a potential recovery in 2027, the company's valuation multiple is expected to remain flat or decline, indicating a bleak near-term financial outlook.