Toast (TOST) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Toast's adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to reach between $565 million and $585 million, reflecting a positive revision from the previous estimate of $540 million to $560 million. The company continues to grow its presence in the US restaurant market, successfully adding a record 8,500 locations in the second quarter. For fiscal year 2025, Toast projects gross profit from subscription services and FinTech solutions to be between $1.815 billion and $1.835 billion, indicating strong upward momentum from the earlier guidance of $1.775 billion to $1.795 billion.

Toast's stock outlook is negatively influenced by the potential stagnation of recurring revenue growth, especially in light of a prolonged economic downturn that could affect consumer spending and slow new restaurant openings. The company is currently unprofitable, with ongoing investments for growth leading to anticipated continued losses, which raise execution risks if the business model struggles to scale effectively. Additionally, persistent supply chain issues and chip shortages could result in hardware bottlenecks, delaying customer onboarding and further hindering growth prospects.