Trimble (TRMB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Trimble is supported by resilient core fundamentals, with 2Q26 revenue of $972M, ARR of $2.509B, and 12% organic ARR growth, while AECO continued to grow mid-teens and Field Systems and T&L remained positive despite mixed segment trends. Management’s FY26 guidance reinforces confidence, as it raised organic revenue growth to 8%-10%, kept 12%-14% organic ARR growth intact, and improved the EBIT range while EBITDA margins reached 28.6%, up 120bps year over year. The outlook is also strengthened by strategic optionality around the T&L review, early achievement of margin goals, and a portfolio shift toward higher-margin recurring software and integrated workflow solutions.

Trimble is facing a deteriorating growth profile as FY26 organic ARR was lowered to about 10% from 12%-14%, with Field Systems cut by roughly 7 points, T&L reduced to mid-single-digit growth, and only AECO holding low-teens retention. The weaker outlook reflects softer agriculture activity, weaker renewals, and a roughly $20M white-label exit drag, while management’s 10% ARR exit velocity only establishes a 2027 floor rather than a near-term acceleration. Despite projected FY26 revenue of $3,926M and adjusted EPS of $3.66, the stock remains pressured by macro sensitivity, concentrated supply-chain risk, and acquisition execution risk that could limit margin and earnings upside.