Tronox (TROX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tronox Holdings PLC is projected to experience mid-single-digit top-line growth and a 200 basis point margin expansion, driven by the transition of higher-cost inventory and mining expansions, as well as favorable trade agreements such as the one between Australia and India. The company’s financial outlook remains positive with expectations for increased EBITDA should there be a recovery in China, which could also lead to a global restocking phase and benefit overall cost savings. Additionally, Tronox is expected to show strong free cash flow, contributing to its de-leveraging efforts and enhancing its financial stability.

Tronox Holdings PLC is facing a challenging financial outlook, with a projected Q2 EBITDA of $107 million, reflecting a decline from previous estimates due to a tougher demand environment and soft pricing, indicating a 4% decrease quarter-over-quarter. In the event of a deep recession, the company's EBITDA could drop by approximately 27% to $411 million, exacerbated by a projected 3% decline in pricing and an 8% decrease in sales volumes, which, although less severe than prior recessions, still pose significant risks. Furthermore, the company’s high leverage raises concerns about the sustainability of dividends, further jeopardizing earnings and cash flows for 2025 and 2026.