TRVI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Trevi Therapeutics has demonstrated a positive outlook driven by increased projected sales for its investigational therapy Haduvio, attributed to strong data, low-dose rapid efficacy, and enhanced market penetration potential for chronic cough treatments. Results from the RIVER RCC trial and consistent patient-reported outcomes further support the therapy's efficacy and safety, contributing to a revised peak sales estimate of $1.7 billion across key indications, which importantly outpaces previous projections. Additionally, the potential for ex-US revenues and the value of Haduvio in treating prurigo nodularis add significant upside to the company's financial prospects.

Trevi Therapeutics Inc. faces a negative outlook primarily due to its projected substantial losses and cash burn until its anticipated product launch in 2029, necessitating additional financing to reach breakeven. The significant and increasing operating expenses related to the clinical development of Haduvio, compounded by the efficacy challenges of competing products such as GSK's camlipixant and Merck’s gefapixant, further exacerbate financial risks. Additionally, the company's long-term projections include a 7% terminal decline starting in 2035, which may highlight skepticism around Haduvio's market sustainability beyond its initial launch phase.