Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Travere Therapeutics is witnessing significant growth momentum for its investigational product candidate, Filspari, which has achieved a robust increase in new patient starts, demonstrating a 37% quarter-over-quarter growth in 4Q24. The company is poised to file a supplemental new drug application for Filspari in focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), a move backed by recent positive discussions with the FDA, suggesting an anticipated rapid launch in the 4Q25, thereby tapping into a sizable market forecasted at $521 million by 2030. With an increase in confidence regarding Filspari's market potential and a modestly improving gross-to-net discount projected for 2025, Travere Therapeutics is well-positioned to capitalize on its expanding indications and pipeline advancements.

Travere Therapeutics Inc faces significant commercial risks, as recent physician surveys indicate that the majority of IgAN patients fall below the key growth metric of 1.5 g/g UPCR, potentially limiting the market opportunity for its product, Filspari. Furthermore, the competitive landscape poses challenges, with existing and potential rivals offering therapies that may demonstrate superior efficacy and safety, thereby undermining the market share prospects for Travere's offerings. Finally, the possibility of earlier-than-expected generic entry adds another layer of uncertainty to the company's revenue projections, highlighting the need for a cautious outlook on its stock.