UPBD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Upbound Group Inc. has demonstrated a strong trajectory in its financial performance, with the 3Q25 Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) increasing by 11% year-over-year, indicating robust growth potential amid tighter underwriting measures. The Acima segment is particularly noteworthy for its faster-than-expected top-line growth, driven by an influx of new accounts, which underscores the company's ability to capture market share and enhance revenue streams. Furthermore, the evolving financial offerings, such as Brigit's subscription model, present an opportunity for improved earnings quality, positioning Upbound to achieve better risk-adjusted margins while expanding its consumer reach.

Upbound Group Inc's stock is facing a negative outlook primarily due to its disappointing 4Q25 guidance, which missed consensus EBITDA and EPS estimates by 11% and 14%, respectively. The Acima segment, which is the largest contributor to revenue, is experiencing increased losses, with projections suggesting that if these losses rise beyond 11%, investor concerns regarding subprime consumer credit deterioration could significantly impact the company's earnings and book value. Additionally, EPS estimates have been reduced by 13% for 2026 and 10% for 2027, leading to a downgrade in the target price, reflecting the current trading multiples that indicate potential undervaluation against the revised earnings projections.