U.S. Bancorp (USB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

U.S. Bancorp is attractive fundamentally because 3Q26 showed record revenue of $7.97 billion, 240bp of positive operating leverage, and a 55.9% efficiency ratio, indicating that its long-running investments are now translating into stronger profitability. Its earnings power is being reinforced by 5.6% year-over-year NII growth to $4.49 billion, 2.84% NIM, rising deposits, and a broader mix of higher-yielding loans and fee businesses, including a full quarter of BTIG and the Amazon card portfolio. Credit quality remains excellent with net charge-offs of 0.51%, NPAs down to $1.32 billion, and CET1 at 10.8%, while management expects capital to build and share repurchases to resume over the next quarter or two.

U.S. Bancorp is facing a negative setup because a recession would दब pressure on ’25 and ’26 EPS through weaker loan growth, higher credit losses, and a lower valuation. Credit quality is also worsening, with rising nonperforming asset inflows in 3Q26 signaling potential future net charge-offs, OREO costs, and workout expenses. Earnings trends are already soft, as noninterest income fell to $526.0 million from $537.0 million sequentially and PS net income dropped to $175.0 million from $222.0 million, while higher inflation, Middle East-related macro risks, and policy uncertainty could further lift loan loss provisions.