USFD Stock Forecast & Price Target

US Foods Holding Corp has shown notable financial growth, with a 4Q24 EBITDA margin expansion of 30 basis points year-over-year, reflecting improved operational efficiency and successful cost-saving measures. The company is poised to capture market share across its three targeted customer segments—Independent, Healthcare, and Hospitality—thanks to strong new account growth and a rising digital sales mix, indicating robust demand for its offerings. Moreover, the permanent cost savings realized during the pandemic, combined with an increasing sales mix from its cash & carry business and enhanced profitability in key sectors, provide a solid foundation for sustained financial performance moving forward.

The analysis indicates a negative outlook on US Foods Holding Corp due to weaker-than-expected organic case growth, reported at 1.4% for the fourth quarter, in contrast to the decline in total restaurant industry foot traffic of approximately 2.0%. Furthermore, the company's guidance for 2025 reveals a projected case growth of only 2-4%, which falls short of its long-term algorithm and reflects ongoing macroeconomic pressures. Additional concerns include heightened competition from Sysco Corporation and the potential for independent restaurants to lose market share to larger chains, further undermining US Foods' growth prospects in a challenging market environment.