USPH Stock Forecast & Price Target

US Physical Therapy is viewed favorably because its core physical therapy business is still producing solid organic momentum, with 1Q26 revenue of $198.3 million, EBITDA of $20.2 million, same-store growth of 2.5%, and daily visits per clinic rising to 31.8 despite weather-related disruption. The outlook is further supported by improving reimbursement trends, including a net PT rate improvement of about 1% year over year and commercial pricing up more than 3%, alongside disciplined cost growth that kept operating expenses relatively contained. In addition, the company’s 10-year hospital partnerships, accretive M&A in PT and IIP, and manageable leverage of 2.2x net debt to annualized EBITDA suggest meaningful margin and earnings upside as these initiatives ramp through 2026 and beyond.

US Physical Therapy is facing a negative setup because continued clinician wage pressure can compress margins, making profitability harder to sustain even if patient volumes hold. Medicare reimbursement pressure is another major risk, especially since Medicare represents roughly a third of revenue, which could make current profitability assumptions too aggressive. In addition, an economic contraction could weaken demand for physical therapy services and slow the Industrial Injury Prevention segment, since that business depends heavily on manufacturing customers and is exposed to cyclical demand.