Vericel (VCEL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vericel Corp demonstrates a promising outlook driven by strong anticipated revenue growth, particularly in its MACI product, which is expected to experience a volume growth rate in the high-teens to low-20s percentage range for fiscal year 2026, in line with market expectations. The company's ability to sustain this growth is further supported by annual average selling price (ASP) increases projected between 300 to 500 basis points, which, combined with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.8% in volume, positions Vericel to achieve consistent revenue expansion. Additionally, the updated guidance for the fourth quarter reflects a notable revenue increase of 26% quarter-over-quarter, reinforcing the company's financial momentum in the biopharmaceutical sector.

Vericel Corp has revised its revenue expectations for MACI, lowering forecasts for FY26 and FY27 by approximately 200 basis points, indicating potential weakness in its core offerings. The company faces significant downside risks, including slower adoption rates for MACI and MACI Arthro, sluggish sales in burn care, and possible disruptions during sales force expansion. Furthermore, any miss in top-line revenue expectations could lead to a decline in share valuation, potentially pushing it toward historical lows.