Velo3D Inc (VELO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Velo3D is benefiting from accelerating demand in aerospace, defense, and energy, where its ability to print highly complex mission-critical metal parts is driving a 52% year-over-year revenue increase to $20.7 million in 2Q26 and supporting $29 million of bookings and $31 million of backlog. Its strategic shift toward Rapid Production Solutions is improving revenue quality by creating longer-duration production relationships and recurring utilization, while the mix shift helped non-GAAP gross margin expand to 21.5% from (11.7%) last year. With $91.1 million of cash and cash equivalents, a raised 2026 revenue outlook of $65 million to $75 million, and new capacity from the Forge 1 campus, the company appears better positioned to scale toward profitability as production volume grows.

Velo3D is burdened by persistent operating losses, with $54.9 million in 2025 and $78.9 million in 2024, alongside ongoing negative cash flow and substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern through the 12-month period following the March 2026 filing. Its financing history, including the August 19, 2025 secondary offering of about 5.8 million shares for roughly $17.5 million, the July 25, 2025 reverse stock split, and the December 2025 debt-for-equity exchange that left Arrayed with about 95% ownership, underscores severe dilution and balance-sheet stress. Fundamental risks remain elevated because revenue is concentrated in a limited customer base, competition is intense, qualification cycles are long, and execution or manufacturing scale issues could prevent margin expansion and delay a path to sustainable profitability.