Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. is experiencing significant revenue growth, particularly with its Fanapt product, which demonstrated a 27% year-over-year increase in revenue during 2Q25 and 31% in 3Q25, suggesting a sustainable run-rate nearing $120 million annually. Additionally, PONVORY showed strong demand with a record high in new patient prescriptions during 2Q25, indicating a promising trajectory for future sales, projected to reach $172.8 million by 2034. The effective commercial strategy, including enhanced prescriber programs and momentum from the recent bipolar approval, is expected to contribute to ongoing increases in prescription volume and overall financial performance.

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. has reported a decline in net product sales, with 2Q25 sales of $7.1 million reflecting an 18% year-over-year decrease, despite a subsequent 20% growth in 3Q25, indicating inconsistent commercial performance. The company's psychiatry franchise is facing imminent cash flow pressures due to expected exclusivity erosion by the end of 2027 and rapid revenue decline for its Fanapt product, particularly as competitive pressures rise with the anticipated dual-indication approval of Bysanti in February 2026. Additionally, significant commercialization challenges are evident, with slow traction for key products and potential negative impacts from external factors such as pricing developments and regulatory setbacks that further complicate Vanda's revenue outlook.