Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. has demonstrated robust growth in its commercial portfolio, particularly with Fanapt, which reported a 27% year-over-year revenue increase in 2Q25 and accelerated to a 31% rise in 3Q25, pointing towards an annualized run-rate nearing $120 million. The strong performance in new patient prescriptions for Ponvory, coupled with expected revenue growth predictions indicating net revenue rising from $5.2 million to $112.3 million by 2034, underscores the company's potential for significant market expansion. Additionally, ongoing enhancements in prescriber awareness and commercial strategy are yielding positive trends across its product offerings, further reinforcing a positive outlook on the company's future financial performance.

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. has reported a decline in net product sales, with $7.1 million in 2Q25 representing an 18% year-over-year decrease, and despite a growth of 20% year-over-year in 3Q25, this growth comes against the backdrop of an expected erosion of exclusivity for key products by the end of 2027. The anticipated launch of Bysanti and its potential to cannibalize sales from the oral Fanapt schizophrenia treatment further raises concerns about future revenue stability, compounded by the recent disruptions caused by acquisition-related adjustments in specialty pharmacy channels. Additionally, the company faces significant risks, including commercial traction challenges, faster-than-expected generic erosion of its key products, and potential negative clinical and regulatory setbacks in its pipeline, all of which contribute to a cautious outlook on Vanda's financial health.