ViaSat (VSAT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Viasat is viewed positively because the successful commissioning of VS3-F2 and VS3-F3, along with customer integrations now underway, should expand capacity and support a multi-quarter monetization path. The 2023 combination with Inmarsat broadened its geographic and vertical reach while reducing redundant costs, and management expects strong capital intensity improvement as capex has likely peaked ahead of multiple launches. Although communication services remains pressured by declines in Fixed and Maritime, the defense and advanced technologies segment grew 27% y/y, and the business is supported by strong spectrum assets and a robust U.S. and 5-Eyes government position.

Viasat is facing a negative fundamental setup as continued declines in Communication Services outweigh the support from its defense and advanced technologies business. In F2Q27, revenue of $1.18B and adjusted EBITDA of $369.9MM both missed consensus, while CS revenue fell to $815MM and CS EBITDA dropped 13% y/y to $294MM, reflecting competitive pressure in fixed broadband and maritime. Although backlog rose 7% y/y to $4.17B and ViaSat-3 F2/F3 could help later, meaningful revenue contribution is not expected until late F27, leaving near-term growth and profitability under pressure.