Vistra Energy (VST) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vistra Corp. has demonstrated a robust performance with retail electricity volumes increasing by 9% year-over-year, reaching 67 terawatt-hours (TWh), while the company has also improved its hedge percentage for 2026 to 94%, signaling effective risk management. The management has reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 EBITDA guidance range of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion and projected a 2026 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of $6.8 billion, reflecting strong growth potential. Furthermore, each 100-200 basis point improvement in trading yield is estimated to represent a 17-24% upside, highlighting the opportunity for significant returns as the company continues to enhance its operational efficiencies.

Vistra Corp. has experienced a decline in EBITDA across both its generation and retail segments, with generation EBITDA falling 5% year-over-year to $593 million due to unplanned outages, while the retail segment reported a decrease of $33 million to $756 million attributed to rising supply costs. The anticipated decline in their leverage ratio from approximately 3.0x, expected to further impact financial stability beginning in 2026, raises concerns about the company's long-term operational health. Additionally, the downside scenario presents significant risks including potential gas price drops, poor operational performance, and adverse weather conditions, which could adversely affect free cash flow per share that would typically benefit customers.