Waste Connections (WCN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Waste Connections is positioned favorably because its Q3 results showed revenue and EBITDA modestly ahead of expectations, FCF about 5% above consensus, and a slight raise to FY26 guidance, all while leverage remained stable at about 2.8x. Its core appeal is the combination of price-led organic growth, resilient landfill and transfer-station economics, and a sizable M&A runway, with management pointing to mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth, 20-40 bps of margin expansion, and double-digit FCF/share growth in 2027. Additional upside comes from lower Chiquita-related spending, incremental RNG contribution, and commodity or fuel tailwinds, which support the view that the company can sustain peer-leading margins and strong cash conversion.

Waste Connections is facing a weak fundamental setup because industry-wide volumes remain challenged, with residential and construction demand still pressured by higher interest rates and fuel costs, and 2026 volumes expected to be around negative 1.5%. Its growth case is also less reliable as RNG contribution has slipped, startup costs may extend into the start of 2027, and lower RIN prices plus weaker generator pricing power are pressuring EBITDA even as capex has exceeded initial estimates. Beyond operations, the stock is exposed to higher union costs, stricter landfill regulation, and valuation risk because it trades above its historical 10-year average EV/EBITDA of 13.1x while a downside case assumes only about $3.1 billion of 2027 EBITDA.