Warby Parker (WRBY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Warby Parker is supported by a compelling mix of resilient core operations and a major Intelligent Eyewear catalyst, with 3Q26 revenue in line, EBITDA about $1M above consensus, and gross margin improving 40bps to 54.6% despite category softness. Its growth case is strengthened by exclusive distribution of Google-backed AI glasses, preorders beginning on November 12, first deliveries in mid-December, and a management view that 2027 should see rapid acceleration as production scales and the launch drives a halo to the brand. Fundamentals also look healthier from rising insurance penetration at 8.4%, eye exams growing 30% Y/Y, and eCommerce up 5% Y/Y, while the stock still trades at 19.1x 2027E EBITDA versus the potential for meaningful profitability expansion.

Warby Parker is exposed to a softer macro backdrop that could curb consumer spending, and even though eyewear is largely non-discretionary, customers may delay purchases if prescriptions do not change. Competition is a major risk because rivals are trying to replicate its technology and go-to-market model, while limited insurance coverage expansion could restrain active customer retention and keep average revenue per customer below expectations. Although adjusted EBITDA was $32.9M with a 14% margin, that figure was flattered by an $11.8M tariff refund benefit, and excluding it EBITDA was about 27% below consensus; meanwhile, ongoing store buildout needs and a shift online could pressure margins and slow progress toward a 20%+ long-term EBITDA target.