Weyerhaeuser (WY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Weyerhaeuser's positive outlook is supported by anticipated improved lumber pricing, which historically correlates positively with the company's share valuation against net asset value (NAV) estimates. The acquisition of high-quality timberlands is expected to contribute significantly, with projected annual EBITDA/FCF of $19 million over the next five years, substantially exceeding the company’s average contributions in the South. Additionally, Weyerhaeuser's strategic divestitures and ongoing timberland sales at approximately 30% premiums to current NAV estimates underscore a favorable risk/reward scenario, while the current 35% discount to NAV indicates potential for share value appreciation.

Weyerhaeuser's financial outlook has deteriorated markedly, with a significant downward revision of its 2Q Wood Products EBITDA forecast from $180 million to $102 million, contributing to an overall consolidated forecast drop from $399 million to $319 million. The company's net asset value has also declined to $39 per share due to increased net debt and decreased expectations for the Wood Products segment, which is projected to report an EBITDA loss in 3Q25—the first such loss since 2011. Further, Weyerhaeuser's forecasts for 2H25 suggest ongoing declines in engineered wood product realizations and challenges in the oriented strand board pricing environment, compounding pressures from a weaker pricing backdrop for lumber products.