Xponential Fitness (XPOF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Xponential Fitness is supported by a durable multi-year unit expansion runway, highlighted by a development agreement for 117 Club Pilates studios across ten states over the next six years and management’s view that the franchise base and spoken-for territories can sustain growth. International momentum also remains strong, with Club Pilates opening its 200th studio in June and surpassing 500 international studios system-wide, while the July Starbucks protein coffee collaboration extends brand visibility to roughly 120,000 Starbucks and Pepsi employees. Although same-store sales remain negative and new fill-in studios pressure run-rate AUV, management believes system-wide sales can still rise through continued studio openings and strong pre-sale-driven opening AUVs.

Xponential Fitness is facing weakening fundamentals, with 2Q revenue of $66.0 million and AEBITDA of $21.9 million both missing expectations as North America comps fell 6.8% and system-wide sales were flat year over year. Management also lowered 2026 guidance for revenue to $250 million-$260 million, AEBITDA to $91 million-$97 million, and net openings, reflecting persistent same-store sales pressure, a slower-than-expected merchandising transition, and ongoing elevated marketing spend that has not restored growth. With roughly 5x net leverage at 6/30, continued legal and lease-related cash outflows, and little visibility on the strategic review, the company’s ability to compound earnings and support growth remains constrained.