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120th Congress: Will Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot?

Yes93¢93%
No7¢7%
$493,176.40 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Hakeem Jeffries is elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives on the first ballot of the Speaker election at the opening of the 120th Congress before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is 1 if Hakeem Jeffries is declared elected Speaker on it, which requires a majority of the votes cast for a person by name, and 0 otherwise, including if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027. The following do NOT count: A later ballot on which Hakeem Jeffries is elected A first ballot on which no candidate receives a majority, even if Hakeem Jeffries receives the most votes The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceClerk of the U.S. House of Representatives
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$493,176.40
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.

Trade Yes and No contracts

  • Yes
    Volume$493,176.40
    Price93¢
    -1.06% today
  • No
    Volume$493,176.40
    Price8¢
    +16.67% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for 120th Congress: Will Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot?. The outcome is Yes, with an estimated probability of 93% and a Yes contract price of $0.93. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for 120th Congress: Will Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for 120th Congress: Will Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for 120th Congress: Will Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot? is Feb 1, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Live odds on 120th Congress: Will Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot?

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120th Congress: Will Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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