Third-party share of the 2028 presidential popular vote?
Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
About
If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 1% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Third-party votes are all votes cast for President other than votes for the Democratic nominee and the Republican nominee. They include votes for independent and minor-party candidates, write-in votes, and votes for "None of these candidates." A nominee is the candidate the Democratic Party or the Republican Party nominated for President. A nominee's votes on every ballot line are combined, including a line of another party (such as New York's Conservative and Working Families lines), and are not third-party votes. The third-party share is the third-party votes divided by the total votes cast for President in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, using the Federal Election Commission's "Official Presidential General Election Results" for the Nov 7, 2028 election: (Total Votes minus the Democratic nominee's total minus the Republican nominee's total) divided by Total Votes. Blank and spoiled ballots are not counted. Votes the report does not include, such as write-ins a state does not tally, are not added from other sources. In a state that uses ranked-choice voting, first-round votes are used. The first version of the report that the FEC publishes is used; later revisions do not count. Each state's figures are its final certified results, including a recount completed before certification. If the FEC has not published the report by expiration, the sum of the states' and the District of Columbia's final certified results is used.
- Full contract termsView
- SourceFederal Election Commission
- Est. resolution date
- Total event volume$10,055.96
- Timeline
- Insider trading is prohibited
Trade Yes contracts
| Contract | Volume | Price | 1D change | Est. probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1% | $10.03K | 96¢ | -1.04% | |
| At least 3% | $25.82 | 36¢ | +15.63% | |
| At least 7% | $0.06 | 6¢ | +400.00% | |
| At least 1.5% | $0.02 | 90¢ | +4.55% | |
| At least 2% | $0 | 68¢ | -100.00% | |
| At least 2.5% | $0 | 48¢ | -100.00% | |
| At least 4% | $0 | 22¢ | -100.00% | |
| At least 5% | $0 | 8¢ | -100.00% |
Trade No contracts
| Contract | Volume | Price | 1D change | Est. probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1% | $10.03K | 5¢ | +25.00% | |
| At least 3% | $25.82 | 73¢ | -7.35% | |
| At least 7% | $0.06 | 99¢ | +9,400.00% | |
| At least 1.5% | $0.02 | 13¢ | -33.33% | |
| At least 2% | $0 | 41¢ | +170.27% | |
| At least 2.5% | $0 | 61¢ | +75.44% | |
| At least 4% | $0 | 87¢ | +21.95% | |
| At least 5% | $0 | 94¢ | +7.53% |
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
How to trade the odds on Third-party share of the 2028 presidential popular vote?
- 1
Create a Public account
Sign up on Public.com or download the Public app for iOS or Android. Complete your profile in minutes, then explore live odds and probabilities across prediction markets.
- 2
Fund your account
Securely link your bank account to deposit funds. Depending on eligibility, you may unlock up to $250,000 in instant buying power right away.
- 3
Buy and sell event contracts
Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for Third-party share of the 2028 presidential popular vote?. Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.
- 4
Manage your portfolio
Track your prediction market positions alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. Plus, create AI Agents for investing and connect your portfolio through MCP to AI models like ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.
Live odds on Third-party share of the 2028 presidential popular vote?
Track live odds and trade event contracts inside a multi-asset portfolio on Public. Plus, create AI Agents for your prediction market strategies.
Third-party share of the 2028 presidential popular vote?
Prediction Markets Glossary
Learn moreEvent estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.
Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.
Event contracts offered by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. and Apex Clearing Corp. through KalshiEX LLC.