When will each party have 2 announced 2028 presidential candidates?
These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
About
If at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination after Issuance and before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Announcing a run means a listed person publicly announces, themselves or through their official campaign, that they are running for their party's 2028 presidential nomination: the Democratic nomination for a listed Democrat and the Republican nomination for a listed Republican. Announcements count cumulatively and need not happen at the same time. A later withdrawal does not undo an announcement. Filing with the Federal Election Commission without a public announcement, forming an exploratory committee, saying they are considering a run, and a run for another party's nomination or as an independent do NOT count. The listed Democrats are the following 44 people, and no one else will be added: Andy Beshear, Hunter Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Hillary Clinton, Roy Cooper, Jasmine Crockett, Mark Cuban, Abdul El-Sayed, Rahm Emanuel, Shawn Fain, John Fetterman, Ruben Gallego, Kamala Harris, David Jolly, Mark Kelly, Ro Khanna, Amy Klobuchar, Mitch Landrieu, Wes Moore, Chris Murphy, Phil Murphy, Gavin Newsom, Beto O'Rourke, Michelle Obama, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Dean Phillips, Graham Platner, Jared Polis, J.B. Pritzker, Gina Raimondo, Josh Shapiro, Mikie Sherrill, Elissa Slotkin, Stephen A. Smith, Abigail Spanberger, Jon Stewart, James Talarico, Chris Van Hollen, Tim Walz, Raphael Warnock, Elizabeth Warren and Gretchen Whitmer. The listed Republicans are the following 40 people, and no one else will be added: Greg Abbott, Steve Bannon, Jeff Bezos, Gregory Bovino, Katie Britt, Doug Burgum, Tucker Carlson, Chris Christie, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Ron DeSantis, Byron Donalds, Tulsi Gabbard, Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Nikki Haley, Josh Hawley, Pete Hegseth, Larry Hogan, Brian Kemp, John Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Joe Kent, Erika Kirk, Jared Kushner, Thomas Massie, John McEntee, Rand Paul, Spencer Pratt, Vivek Ramaswamy, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Tim Scott, Elise Stefanik, John Thune, Donald J. Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, J.D. Vance and Glenn Youngkin. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- Full contract termsView
- SourceABC, ABC News Australia, Axios, BBC, Bloomberg News, CBC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, South China Morning Post, The Guardian, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, the New York Times
- Est. resolution date—
- Total event volume$3,978.02
- Timeline
- Insider trading is prohibited
Trade Yes contracts
| Contract | Volume | Price | 1D change | Est. probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2027 | $3.98K | 77¢ | -2.63% | |
| Before Apr 1, 2028 | $0 | 97¢ | -100.00% | |
| Before Dec 1, 2027 | $0 | 97¢ | -100.00% | |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | $0 | 40¢ | -100.00% | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | $0 | 97¢ | -100.00% | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | $0 | 91¢ | -100.00% | |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | $0 | 61¢ | -100.00% | |
| Before Sep 1, 2027 | $0 | 97¢ | -100.00% |
Trade No contracts
| Contract | Volume | Price | 1D change | Est. probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2027 | $3.98K | 27¢ | +8.33% | |
| Before Apr 1, 2028 | $0 | 6¢ | +2,400.00% | |
| Before Dec 1, 2027 | $0 | 7¢ | +1,900.00% | |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | $0 | 61¢ | +66.67% | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | $0 | 7¢ | +1,900.00% | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | $0 | 13¢ | +809.09% | |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | $0 | 45¢ | +138.10% | |
| Before Sep 1, 2027 | $0 | 8¢ | +1,566.67% |
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When will each party have 2 announced 2028 presidential candidates?
Prediction Markets Glossary
Learn moreEvent estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
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