Who will win a state in the 2028 Republican primaries?
Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
About
If Marco Rubio wins at least one of the 2028 state Republican presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. Only a statewide primary or caucus held in one of the 50 states or the District of Columbia counts, and in each of them only the one that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from that state or district (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner of a contest is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. A contest that is not held before Sep 1, 2028, or that reports no statewide vote count, does NOT count.
- Full contract termsView
- SourceABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, New York Times, US State Governments
- Est. resolution date
- Total event volume$800.00
- Timeline
- Insider trading is prohibited
Trade Yes contracts
| Contract | Volume | Price | 1D change | Est. probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | $400 | 44¢ | -7.50% | |
| Ron DeSantis | $400 | 34¢ | -10.00% | |
| J.D. Vance | $0 | 65¢ | -100.00% | |
| Thomas Massie | $0 | 12¢ | -100.00% | |
| Tucker Carlson | $0 | 16¢ | -100.00% |
Trade No contracts
| Contract | Volume | Price | 1D change | Est. probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | $400 | 65¢ | +5.00% | |
| Ron DeSantis | $400 | 74¢ | +4.29% | |
| J.D. Vance | $0 | 44¢ | +150.00% | |
| Thomas Massie | $0 | 96.9¢ | +8.70% | |
| Tucker Carlson | $0 | 92.9¢ | +13.64% |
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Frequently asked questions
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Who will win a state in the 2028 Republican primaries?
Prediction Markets Glossary
Learn moreEvent estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
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