Will an independent or third-party candidate win a state?
Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
About
If anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee wins the most votes for President in at least one state or the District of Columbia in the Nov 7, 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. A state or the District of Columbia is counted when the candidate with the most votes statewide in its certified results is neither the Democratic Party's nor the Republican Party's nominee for President. Write-in candidates count. Electoral votes, including any cast by unpledged or faithless electors, do NOT decide a state's winner. A party's nominee is the candidate that party officially nominates for President. A nominee who is also listed under another party's line, such as the Working Families Party in New York, is still that party's nominee and does NOT count as independent or third party. A candidate who is endorsed by either party but is not its nominee counts. A candidate listed on a state's ballot as the Democratic or Republican candidate in place of that party's nominee does NOT count. In Maine and Nebraska, only the statewide vote counts. In a state that counts ranked-choice ballots, such as Maine, the candidate with the most votes is the one leading the final round of the certified tabulation. Winning a congressional district does NOT count. Resolution is based on certified results only, not preliminary results.
- Full contract termsView
- SourceAssociated Press, US State Governments
- Est. resolution date
- Total event volume$0.00
- Timeline
- Insider trading is prohibited
Trade Yes and No contracts
- YesVolume$0.00Price4¢-100.00% today
- NoVolume$0.00Price99¢+9,900.00% today
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Frequently asked questions
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Will an independent or third-party candidate win a state?
Prediction Markets Glossary
Learn moreEvent estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
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