Will the 2028 Democratic presidential primary be fractured?

If the lowest winning vote share in any state's 2028 Democratic presidential primary or caucus is below 25% in the final round of counting, for contests held before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Each state's contest is the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Democratic national convention delegates from that state (the earlier one if two allocate the same number), except that in New Hampshire it is the primary run by the Secretary of State and in Iowa it is the first statewide preference vote the Iowa Democratic Party reports, whether or not the Democratic National Committee sanctions either. The 50 states and the District of Columbia are in scope; territories and Democrats Abroad are not. The winner of a contest is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, such as the final alignment of a caucus or the last round of a ranked-choice count. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates and cannot be the winner. The winner's vote share is their votes divided by all votes counted in that final round, including votes for "Uncommitted" and other ballot options, calculated from the reported totals without rounding. Resolution is based on certified results only, not preliminary results; for a contest run by a party, the party's official reported results are used. A contest that is not held by Aug 31, 2028, or that reports no statewide vote count, is not counted.